tonnes of rare-earth-oxide equivalent to an estimated 2,000 tonnes,
according to the U.S. Geological Survey's 2026 Mineral Commodity
rare-earth supply table two years ago is now a credible mid-tier
producer — and climbing fast.¹²
mine production at 560 tonnes REO in 2024 and 2,000 tonnes in 2025, a
grew at anything close to that pace during the same period. Australia
held flat at 29,000 tonnes; the United States climbed from 45,500 to
51,000 tonnes; China's reported output was unchanged at 270,000 tonnes.
percent of the estimated 390,000 tonnes of global 2025 production — but
the rate of change tells a different story.¹ A producer that triples
output in a year is signalling that a specific project is scaling
quickly. In Brazil's case, the project is Serra Verde's Pela Ema
operation in Goiás.
ramping since. The company's stated plan is to reach 6,500 tonnes of
rare-earth oxides per year by the end of 2027, over a 25-year mine
life.² If that target is hit, Serra Verde alone would account for
roughly 1.7 percent of global rare-earth supply — a significant share
for a single operation.
ionic-adsorption clay — the same style that has made southern China
dominant in heavy-rare-earth supply for decades. Ionic clays are cheaper
to process than the bastnaesite or monazite sources that dominate
elsewhere, and they carry a meaningful share of the high-value heavy
rare earths (dysprosium, terbium) that the permanent-magnet industry
needs most.
country where rare-earth processing expertise has historically been
limited, and the company has had to build out the technical capability
as it scales. The 2024-2025 output trajectory suggests the learning
curve is being navigated successfully.
rare-earth concentrate into the international market, primarily to
hub in Poços de Caldas comes online, a share of that concentrate could
be processed domestically, capturing midstream value that currently
flows overseas. That pathway is the most important second-stage
development for the Brazilian industry as a whole.
bastnaesite-bearing carbonatites (Mountain Pass in California, Mt Weld
in Australia) and monazite from heavy-mineral sands (in several
jurisdictions). Ionic-adsorption clays are structurally different. They
form in the weathering profile above granitic rocks in tropical climates
and concentrate rare earths by adsorption onto clay minerals.
mild leaching chemistries rather than the high-temperature cracking
processes that bastnaesite or monazite require. Capital intensity is
lower, operating costs are lower, and environmental footprint is
generally smaller. The disadvantage is that ionic clays typically have
lower total rare-earth content per tonne — the economics rely on scale
and process efficiency rather than grade.
the right geological conditions for ionic-clay formation. Serra Verde is
the first such deposit at commercial scale, but Aclara Resources at its
benefit from the same technical advantages.
validation. In November 2025, the U.S. International Development Finance
refinance existing shareholder debt.² The announcement came in the
context of a broader U.S.-Brazil alignment on critical minerals — and it
signalled that Washington sees Brazilian rare-earth production as
strategically important.
financing package in September 2025 and submitted its Environmental
commercial production in 2028.² Taken together, the DFC activity in 2025
amounts to the largest external capital commitment ever made to
Brazilian rare earths.
The USGS's 2026 report also emphasises Brazil's reserve position.
the third-largest reserve base in the world, behind only China (44
million tonnes) and Australia (36.3 million tonnes, or 3.3 million
tonnes on a JORC-equivalent basis).¹ That puts Brazil ahead of Vietnam
potential supplier outside the top two.
global consumption rates, Brazil alone could supply the world for
decades if the processing and downstream infrastructure were in place.
Poços de Caldas — is the next chapter.
through 2026 and 2027. Serra Verde's ramp toward 6,500 tonnes per year,
progression of Caldeira through feasibility together suggest that the
the decade depends on execution at multiple operators simultaneously,
but the trajectory is established. For a country that had no meaningful
rare-earth production five years ago, the 2025 number is not an
end-point — it is a foundation, and the first of several milestones that
the Brazilian rare-earth industry is expected to set as Serra Verde,
schedules over the next 24-36 months against a firm price environment.
what comes next for Br