Rare Earth Market

Prices, demand drivers and 2030 supply outlook

2025 Rare Earth Prices

Element2025 Price (US$/kg)Category
Lanthanum oxideUS$1.00Light REE
Cerium oxideUS$1.71Light REE
Neodymium oxideUS$73Magnet REE
Praseodymium oxideUS$74Magnet REE
NdPr oxideUS$69Magnet REE
Dysprosium~US$250Heavy REE — magnet
Terbium>US$1,000Heavy REE — magnet
Europium oxideUS$27Heavy REE
Gadolinium oxideUS$30Heavy REE

Demand Drivers — Wind, Wheels, Weapons

Electric vehicles: each EV carries 2–5 kg of NdFeB permanent magnets. Global EV production is projected to require approximately 120,000 tonnes of NdFeB magnets annually by 2030.

Wind turbines: a single megawatt of direct-drive capacity requires approximately 500 kg of permanent magnets (~167 kg rare-earth content). A 15-MW offshore turbine uses roughly 2.5 tonnes of rare earths per unit.

Defence: an F-35 fighter carries more than 900 pounds (~408 kg) of rare-earth content. An Arleigh Burke destroyer requires ~5,200 pounds; a Virginia-class submarine ~9,200 pounds.

2030 Supply Gap

Global rare-earth demand for permanent-magnet applications is projected to reach approximately 50,000 tonnes/year by 2030. Current non-Chinese NdPr production: Lynas ~10,500 t/yr; MP Materials targeting ~13,000 t/yr by 2028. The arithmetic is tight — non-Chinese supply must scale significantly to close the gap.

China's Magnet Scale — The Benchmark

China produced approximately 138,000 tonnes of sintered NdFeB magnets in 2018 (CSIS estimate). The best Western non-Chinese capacity expected by 2028 is roughly 10,000 tonnes (MP Materials). The 13:1 ratio describes the gap the entire post-2025 diversification push is trying to close.

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