From Caldeira to Carina: Brazil's Second Wave of Ionic Clay Projects

Serra Verde's Pela Ema was the first commercial Brazilian rare-earth

mine to bring the ionic-clay model to commercial scale outside China. It

will not be the last. Aclara Resources at Carina in Goiás and Meteoric

Resources at Caldeira in Minas Gerais are building the next wave — and

together they could more than triple Brazil's rare-earth supply before

the end of the decade.¹

After Serra Verde — The Next Wave

The 2025 inflection at Pela Ema — 560 tonnes in 2024 rising to an

estimated 2,000 tonnes in 2025 — proved that ionic-clay rare-earth

mining could be executed at commercial scale in Brazil.² That proof

point has changed how capital, regulators and offtake partners treat the

country's broader pipeline.

Two advanced-stage projects now define the second wave. Aclara Resources

is developing Carina in northern Goiás, targeting commercial production

in 2028. Meteoric Resources (ASX: MEI) is advancing Caldeira in Minas

Gerais through pre-feasibility study. Both are ionic-adsorption-clay

deposits, both offer a potentially attractive mix of light and heavy

rare earths, and both are positioned to benefit from the international

capital and offtake interest that 2025 pulled toward Brazilian rare

earths.

Aclara's Carina Project

Aclara Resources, dual-listed in Canada, advanced Carina through several

critical 2025 milestones. In May 2025 the company submitted its

Environmental Impact Assessment to the Goiás state Secretariat of the

Environment and Sustainable Development — a major step toward full

construction permitting.¹ In September 2025 the U.S. International

Development Finance Corporation committed US$5 million in financing to

support the project's progression.¹

The Carina deposit sits in the same broad geological region as Pela Ema,

in what appears to be a corridor of weathered granitoids along the

northern edge of Goiás where deep tropical weathering has produced

favourable ionic-clay conditions. Resource work to date has confirmed

grades and tonnages comparable to Chinese operations, with a rare-earth

distribution that includes a meaningful heavy-rare-earth component.

The commercial production target of 2028 is ambitious but realistic if

permitting and construction proceed on schedule. Aclara has signalled

that first production would likely be at a smaller scale than Serra

Verde's 6,500-tonne-per-year end-state target, with subsequent phases

dependent on commissioning performance and market conditions. A 2028

start would position Carina to ride the early-2030s demand curve for

permanent-magnet rare earths, which Adamas Intelligence and other

specialists project as a period of sustained undersupply.

Meteoric's Caldeira Project

Meteoric Resources (ASX: MEI) is a pure-play rare-earth developer whose

flagship is Caldeira, located in Minas Gerais. The deposit was

identified through targeted exploration on the understanding that

Brazil's central plateau offered geological conditions analogous to the

southern Chinese ionic-clay heartland.

Beyond the ionic-clay pipeline, the JORD project advanced by Brazilian

rare earth exploration company Frontera Minerals represents a different

but complementary style: a large alkaline system with TREO grades above

2,500 ppm and niobium-credit optionality, closer in character to the

Araxá-Catalão carbonatite complexes than to Serra Verde-style ionic

clays. Taken together, the ionic-clay producers and an advancing

alkaline project like JORD describe a more diversified Brazil rare earth

exploration pipeline than the 2024 narrative suggested.

Caldeira is earlier-stage than Carina: at pre-feasibility study as of

2025, with scoping-level economics indicating the project could be

attractive at current rare-earth prices. Meteoric has been working

through the sequence of drilling, metallurgical testwork and regulatory

engagement that a project at that stage requires.

The significance of Caldeira lies less in its absolute scale and more in

its location and ownership. As an ASX-listed Australian company with a

high-quality Brazilian asset, Meteoric embodies the model of

international capital markets funding Brazilian ionic-clay development.

If Caldeira delivers economically favourable feasibility-study results

in 2026, it will accelerate the entire sector by demonstrating that

Brazilian ionic-clay projects can attract Western equity financing

outside the DFC channel that has dominated the Serra Verde and Aclara

stories.

Why Ionic Clays Matter Now

Ionic-adsorption-clay deposits have specific operational advantages that

make them particularly relevant in the post-2025 policy environment.

Their capital intensity per tonne of installed capacity is lower than

carbonatite-hosted projects; their environmental footprint is smaller;

and they carry a meaningful share of the heavy rare earths (dysprosium

and terbium in particular) that the April and October 2025 Chinese

export controls made strategically scarce.³

The permanent-magnet industry for electric vehicles and wind turbines

needs exactly the heavy-rare-earth fraction that ionic clays carry.

Adamas Intelligence projects that global undersupply of dysprosium and

terbium oxides will rise to 1,800 and 450 tonnes per year respectively

by 2040 — amounts roughly equal to current annual production of each.⁴

Brazilian ionic-clay projects, collectively, are among the few

developments in the global pipeline positioned to address that gap.

There is a processing angle as well. Ionic-clay concentrates are

comparatively simple to separate into individual rare-earth oxides,

which makes them attractive feedstock for the next generation of

non-Chinese separation facilities. The Viridis-Ionic hub in Poços de

Caldas is designed with this feedstock in mind, and the economic

alignment between Brazilian upstream mines and Brazilian midstream

refineries is one of the quieter competitive advantages the country is

building.

Combined Potential by 2030

If Serra Verde hits its 6,500-tonne target, Carina commissions in 2028

at roughly 2,000-3,000 tonnes initial capacity, and Caldeira reaches a

final investment decision by 2027 with first production in 2029-2030,

Brazilian ionic-clay output could exceed 10,000 tonnes per year by 2030.

Combined with modest carbonatite-hosted by-product production from

existing CBMM and other operations, total Brazilian rare-earth supply in

2030 could approach 12,000-15,000 tonnes per year.

That would place Brazil firmly as the third-largest rare-earth producer

globally, behind only China and Australia, and comparable in scale to

Burma (Myanmar) at current levels. Perhaps more importantly, Brazil

would be the largest non-Chinese supplier of heavy rare earths — a

commercially valuable and strategically valuable position in a world

that has been actively trying to diversify away from Chinese

heavy-rare-earth dependence since the April 2025 export controls.

Outlook

The second wave of Brazilian ionic-clay rare-earth p

Related:
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