rare-earth content — roughly 408 kilogrammes of material that is almost
entirely processed through Chinese refineries. That arithmetic, quietly
repeated across every major U.S. defence platform, explains why the
independence.¹
West Point and other defence analysts, cross-referenced with U.S.
than 900 pounds of rare-earth-bearing components; an Arleigh Burke
submarine around 9,200 pounds.¹ Those quantities dwarf what a typical
industrial product would consume — and they sit inside platforms with
production runs that continue for decades.
therefore measured in tens of tonnes per year at a minimum, and in
hundreds of tonnes when ancillary equipment, spares and upgrades are
included. Those quantities are small in commodity-market terms but
enormous in national-security terms, because the platforms they support
cannot be produced if the supply chain fails at any point.
The F-35 uses rare earths in multiple sub-systems simultaneously.
alloys power actuators, control surfaces and electrical generators.
sensor systems. Cerium-based polishing and lanthanum-containing optics
appear across the electro-optical targeting and navigation payload.
where weight and strength trade off particularly acutely.
the 900-plus-pound figure. And each is sourced through a global supply
chain where Chinese refineries dominate the midstream, Chinese magnet
manufacturers dominate the downstream, and the only readily available
substitutes — for specific alloys or specific applications — carry
meaningful performance penalties.
The substitution question has received intense research attention.
alternatives, iron-nitride magnets, superconducting designs and other
approaches. None has yet produced an at-scale commercial product that
can replace NdFeB magnets in the most demanding defence applications
without a meaningful power-density or weight-efficiency penalty. For the
foreseeable future, rare-earth supply remains the binding constraint.
electric motors, sensors, sonar arrays, inertial-navigation systems and
weapons-launch control. A DDG-51 destroyer's 5,200 pounds similarly span
propulsion, sensors, weapons and electronic warfare. Tomahawk cruise
missiles, Predator unmanned aerial vehicles, and the Joint Direct Attack
seekers, control actuators and targeting systems.¹
installations, battlefield electronics, satellite communications, laser
weapons in development, night-vision goggles — all add to the aggregate.
aggregate into sharp policy focus at the Pentagon.
operators, Japanese destroyer builders, South Korean submarine
programmes and Australian surface-fleet expansion all rely on
rare-earth-dense systems with comparable intensities. A diversified
non-Chinese supply chain therefore matters not only to the U.S. but to a
coalition of defence partners whose industrial bases have grown
increasingly interdependent over the past two decades.
heavy elements most important to permanent-magnet applications. The
list, directly targeting the capacity of non-Chinese operators to scale
up refining on non-Chinese territory.² Within U.S. defence procurement,
both measures were treated as a clear signal that existing supply-chain
assumptions needed to be re-examined.
rare-earth supply-chain development, and the 2024 National Defense
was the most visible single action under that policy framework.
project in August 2025 and the DFC's US$465 million financing package
for Serra Verde in Brazil in November 2025 both reflect the view that a
defence-ready rare-earth supply chain must include allied-country
capacity, not only domestic capacity.
into F-35s and submarines. Serra Verde's mixed concentrate does not flow
directly into a defence-grade permanent magnet — it flows through
separation and metal-making and magnet-forming steps that sit in
if the Poços de Caldas hub scales.
rare-earth supply chain that passes through Serra Verde concentrate,
on Chinese territory, Chinese licensing or Chinese political decisions.
production is one of its foundations.
of U.S. defence platforms will contain even more rare-earth-intensive
systems — hypersonic missiles, directed-energy weapons and advanced
satellite constellations all rely on magnet and phosphor rare earths for
core performance. As the demand grows, the Pentagon's incentive to
secure non-Chinese supply grows with